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"approvalStatus": "approved", "approvedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "meaning": "Series H post-money 기업가치; 투자금 65B와 구분", "unit": "USD", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "official", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "comparisonEligibility": "reference_only", "comparisonReason": "실제 주식 수·계약의 지분/희석 기준과의 정합성은 별도 확인 필요", "roundId": "anthropic-series-h-20260528" }, { "referenceId": "anthropic-ipo-reported-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "kind": "IPO_REPORTED_SCENARIO", "equityOrEnterprise": "EQUITY", "preOrPostMoney": "UNKNOWN", "shareBasis": "UNKNOWN", "currency": "USD", "value": "2000000000000", "low": null, "high": null, "asOfDate": "2026-09-04", "reportedAt": "2026-09-04", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-IPO-CNA-20260905", "CF-ANTH-IPO-SCENARIO-20260902" ], "status": "INVESTOR_SCENARIO_REPORTED_NOT_COMMITTED_TARGET", "approvalStatus": "approved", "approvedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "meaning": "투자자의 약 2T IPO 시나리오 보도", "unit": "USD", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "comparisonEligibility": "scenario", "comparisonReason": "출처별 투자자 시나리오이며 공모 전후·지분 기준 미공개", "roundId": "anthropic-ipo-scenario-2026", "note": "Reuters는 2T 가능성, 인베스트조선은 2T 이상 예상이라고 표현. 회사 확정 목표 아님." }, { "referenceId": "moonshot-funding-reported-20260903", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "kind": "FUNDING_ROUND_REPORTED_ONGOING", "equityOrEnterprise": "EQUITY", "preOrPostMoney": "PRE_MONEY", "shareBasis": "UNKNOWN", "currency": "USD", "value": "50000000000", "low": null, "high": null, "asOfDate": "2026-09-05", "reportedAt": "2026-09-05", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "status": "MEDIA_REPORTED_PRE_MONEY_TARGET", "approvalStatus": "approved", "approvedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "meaning": "추가 라운드 투자 전 목표 기업가치; 완료 라운드·IPO 가치 아님", "unit": "USD", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "comparisonEligibility": "scenario", "comparisonReason": "완료되지 않은 pre-money 목표이고 지분·희석 기준 미공개", "roundId": "moonshot-additional-round-target-2026", "version": "2026-09-05-source-clarification", "supersedesVersion": "seed-2026-09-03-undisclosed-pre-post", "note": "기존 referenceId를 유지해 동일 추가 라운드의 9/5 원문 검증 버전으로 갱신. 7/30 완료 라운드 35B와 분리" }, { "referenceId": "moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "kind": "FUNDING_ROUND_REPORTED_COMPLETED", "equityOrEnterprise": "EQUITY", "preOrPostMoney": "POST_MONEY", "shareBasis": "UNKNOWN", "currency": "USD", "value": "35000000000", "low": null, "high": null, "asOfDate": "2026-07-30", "reportedAt": "2026-07-30", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730", "DR_STCN_MOONSHOT_20260730" ], "status": "MEDIA_REPORTED_COMPLETED_ROUND", "approvalStatus": "approved", "approvedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "meaning": "보도상 완료 F 라운드의 투자 후 지분가치; 실제 주식 종류·희석 기준 미확인", "unit": "USD", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED_MANUAL_FACT", "comparisonEligibility": "reference_only", "comparisonReason": "투자 후 지분가치는 확인했으나 보통주/우선주 조건과 희석 기준은 미공개", "roundId": "moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "note": "7/30 STCN 본문의 투자 후 가치 명시를 추가 확인. 같은 완료 라운드 ID로 갱신하며 이전 미확인 버전은 운영 이력에 보존한다. 원문 반복 자동수집/전문 재게시 승인 아님." } ], "ipoEvents": [ { "eventId": "openai-confidential-s1-announced-20260608", "companyId": "openai", "stage": "CONFIDENTIAL_FILED", "eventKind": "CONFIDENTIAL_DRAFT_S1", "expectedWindowText": "2026년 6월 8일 최근 비공개 제출을 공식 발표; IPO 시점 미정", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "UNKNOWN", "timezone": null, "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-S1-20260608", "CF-OAI-RSS" ], "reportedAt": "2026-06-08", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": false, "asOfDate": "2026-06-08", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "official", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "eventOccurredAt": null, "announcementDate": "2026-06-08", "note": "발표일을 실제 제출일로 치환하지 않음. 공개 S-1·심사 완료·거래 개시가 아님." }, { "eventId": "openai-timing-reported-20260625", "companyId": "openai", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "IPO_TIMING_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "2027년 상장 대기 검토 보도; 더 낮은 목표가치로 조기 상장하는 대안도 언급", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-IPO-CNA-20260626" ], "reportedAt": "2026-06-25", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": false, "asOfDate": "2026-06-25", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "expectedYear": 2027, "note": "CNA 6/26 싱가포르 공개, Reuters 본문 기준 6/25 보도. 회사 확정 일정 아님." }, { "eventId": "anthropic-confidential-s1-20260601", "companyId": "anthropic", "stage": "CONFIDENTIAL_FILED", "eventKind": "CONFIDENTIAL_DRAFT_S1", "expectedWindowText": "2026년 6월 1일 SEC에 비공개 S-1 초안 제출", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "DAY", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-S1-20260601" ], "reportedAt": "2026-06-01", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": false, "asOfDate": "2026-06-01", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "official", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "eventOccurredAt": "2026-06-01", "note": "제안 보통주 IPO. 공모 주식 수·가격 미정이며 시장 조건과 SEC 검토 등에 좌우됨." }, { "eventId": "anthropic-prospectus-outlook-20260902", "companyId": "anthropic", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "PUBLIC_PROSPECTUS_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "2026년 9월 노동절 이후 증권신고서 공개 전망", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-IPO-SCENARIO-20260902" ], "reportedAt": "2026-09-02", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": true, "asOfDate": "2026-09-02", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "conflictGroupId": "anthropic-prospectus-window-2026", "note": "유료 게재 9/2, 공개 입력 9/3. 후속 Reuters 전망과 함께 보존." }, { "eventId": "anthropic-listing-outlook-20260902", "companyId": "anthropic", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "IPO_TIMING_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "이르면 2026년 9월 말~10월 초 상장 추진 보도", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-IPO-SCENARIO-20260902" ], "reportedAt": "2026-09-02", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": true, "asOfDate": "2026-09-02", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "conflictGroupId": "anthropic-listing-window-2026", "note": "인베스트조선 전망. 확정 거래 개시일 없음." }, { "eventId": "anthropic-prospectus-outlook-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "PUBLIC_PROSPECTUS_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "2026년 9월 말 공개 증권신고서 예상", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-IPO-CNA-20260905" ], "reportedAt": "2026-09-04", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": true, "asOfDate": "2026-09-04", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "conflictGroupId": "anthropic-prospectus-window-2026", "note": "공개 문서를 확보했다는 의미가 아닌 향후 전망. 기존 출처별 일정을 삭제하지 않음." }, { "eventId": "anthropic-marketing-outlook-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "IPO_MARKETING_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "이르면 2026년 10월 중순 IPO 마케팅 개시 전망", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-IPO-CNA-20260905" ], "reportedAt": "2026-09-04", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": false, "asOfDate": "2026-09-04", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "note": "마케팅·로드쇼 예상이며 거래 개시일이 아님. 관계자 보도; 회사는 논평 거부." }, { "eventId": "anthropic-listing-outlook-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "IPO_TIMING_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "2026년 11월 미국 중간선거 며칠 전 상장 완료 전망", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-IPO-CNA-20260905" ], "reportedAt": "2026-09-04", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": true, "asOfDate": "2026-09-04", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "conflictGroupId": "anthropic-listing-window-2026", "note": "정확한 거래 개시일로 환산하지 않음. 출처가 timing subject to change라고 명시." }, { "eventId": "moonshot-restructuring-reported-20260809", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "stage": "PREPARING_REPORTED", "eventKind": "CORPORATE_RESTRUCTURING", "expectedWindowText": "홍콩 IPO 준비를 위한 중국 내 법인의 주식회사 전환 보도", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "UNKNOWN", "timezone": null, "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-STRUCTURE-20260809" ], "reportedAt": "2026-08-09", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": false, "asOfDate": "2026-08-09", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "note": "실제 변경일은 지난주로만 표현. 역외 구조 정리·투자자 지분 이전은 진행 중." }, { "eventId": "moonshot-listing-outlook-20260809", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "IPO_TIMING_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "일부 관계자는 2027년 전 상장이 어렵다고 전망; 규제 해소 시 조기 가능 의견도 존재", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-STRUCTURE-20260809" ], "reportedAt": "2026-08-09", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": true, "asOfDate": "2026-08-09", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "conflictGroupId": "moonshot-listing-window-2026-2027" }, { "eventId": "moonshot-confidential-application-reported-20260903", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "stage": "CONFIDENTIAL_FILED_REPORTED", "eventKind": "CONFIDENTIAL_IPO_APPLICATION", "expectedWindowText": "홍콩 IPO 비공개 신청 제출 보도", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "UNKNOWN", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-CNA-20260903" ], "reportedAt": "2026-09-03", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": false, "asOfDate": "2026-09-03", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "note": "Reuters가 익명 관계자 3명을 인용. 실제 공개 신청서·접수증·상장 승인 및 발행법인은 미확정." }, { "eventId": "moonshot-listing-outlook-20260905", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "stage": "REPORTED", "eventKind": "IPO_TIMING_OUTLOOK", "expectedWindowText": "이르면 2026년 홍콩 IPO 검토 보도", "confirmedTradingDate": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "reportedAt": "2026-09-05", "verificationState": "approved", "supersedesId": null, "conflict": true, "asOfDate": "2026-09-05", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "expectedYear": 2026, "conflictGroupId": "moonshot-listing-window-2026-2027", "note": "8월의 2027년 이후 전망과 병존. 확정 거래 개시일은 없음." } ], "archives": [ { "companyId": "spacex", "name": "SpaceX", "symbol": "SPCXUSDT", "reason": "STANDARD_TRADFI_TRANSITION_NOTICE", "sourceIds": [ "S05" ], "evidenceDate": "2026-06-12" }, { "companyId": "quantinuum", "name": "Quantinuum", "symbol": "QNTXUSDT", "reason": "STANDARD_TRADFI_TRANSITION_NOTICE", "sourceIds": [ "S06" ], "evidenceDate": "2026-06-04" }, { "companyId": "unitree", "name": "Unitree Robotics", "symbol": "UNITREEUSDT", "reason": "UNDERLYING_ALREADY_SSE_LISTED_688836", "sourceIds": [ "S07", "S41" ], "evidenceDate": "2026-08-19" }, { "companyId": "shein", "name": "SHEIN", "symbol": "SHEINUSDT", "reason": "UNDERLYING_PUBLIC_AND_STANDARD_PERP_NOTICE", "sourceIds": [ "S08", "S09", "S42" ], "evidenceDate": "2026-09-01" } ], "initialTerms": [ { "instrumentId": "binance:OPENAIUSDT", "estimatedUnits": "1000000000", "fundingRateFraction": "0.00005", "fundingIntervalMinutes": 480, "fundingMode": "FIXED_AT_LAUNCH", "termsStatus": "ANNOUNCED_BASELINE_NEEDS_REVALIDATION", "sourceRefs": [ "S01" ] }, { "instrumentId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT", "estimatedUnits": "1000000000", "fundingRateFraction": "0.00005", "fundingIntervalMinutes": 480, "fundingMode": "FIXED_AT_LAUNCH", "termsStatus": "ANNOUNCED_BASELINE_NEEDS_REVALIDATION", "sourceRefs": [ "S02" ] }, { "instrumentId": "bybit:OPENAIUSDT", "estimatedUnits": "1000000000", "fundingRateFraction": "0.00005", "fundingIntervalMinutes": 240, "fundingMode": "FIXED_AT_LAUNCH", "termsStatus": "ANNOUNCED_BASELINE_NEEDS_REVALIDATION", "sourceRefs": [ "S03" ] }, { "instrumentId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT", "estimatedUnits": "1000000000", "fundingRateFraction": "0.00005", "fundingIntervalMinutes": 240, "fundingMode": "FIXED_AT_LAUNCH", "termsStatus": "ANNOUNCED_BASELINE_NEEDS_REVALIDATION", "sourceRefs": [ "S03" ] }, { "instrumentId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT", "estimatedUnits": "1000000000", "fundingRateFraction": "0.00005", "fundingIntervalMinutes": 240, "fundingMode": "FIXED_AT_LAUNCH", "termsStatus": "ANNOUNCED_BASELINE_NEEDS_REVALIDATION", "sourceRefs": [ "S04" ] } ], "factors": [ { "instrumentId": "binance:OPENAIUSDT", "companyId": "openai", "factor": "1000000000", "unitDefinition": "ESTIMATED_TOTAL_VALUATION_UNITS", "effectiveFrom": "2026-05-26T08:30:00Z", "effectiveTo": "2026-09-08T01:44:04.475Z", "sourceRefs": [ 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"companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "kimi_service_operator", "label": "Kimi 약관상 서비스 운영법인", "value": "Beijing Moonshot Technology Co., Ltd", "unit": "LEGAL_ENTITY", "meaning": "영문 Kimi Terms of Service의 계약 상대 명칭", "metricKind": "kimi_service_operator", "asOfDate": "2024-01-05", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-TERMS" ], "provenance": "official", "currentness": "HISTORICAL", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "OFFICIAL_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "note": "2024년 효력 영문 약관의 운영법인. IPO 발행법인으로 승인하지 않음." }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-status_service_operator", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "status_service_operator", "label": "상태 서비스 운영법인", "value": "北京月之暗面科技股份有限公司", "unit": "LEGAL_ENTITY", "meaning": "status.moonshot.cn 개인정보처리방침의 운영 주체", "metricKind": "status_service_operator", "asOfDate": "2026-08-13", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-STATUS-PRIVACY" ], "provenance": "official", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "OFFICIAL_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "note": "최신 중국어 명칭과 서비스 범위를 보존. Kimi 영문 약관과 법인 형태 표기가 다르며 IPO 발행법인 미확정." }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-products", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "products", "label": "주요 제품", "value": "Kimi · Open Platform(API) · Kimi Code · Kimi Business", "unit": "TEXT", "meaning": "공식 About 페이지의 제품·서비스 목록", "metricKind": "products", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ABOUT" ], "provenance": "official", "currentness": "CURRENT_VERIFIED", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "OFFICIAL_SOURCE_REGISTERED" }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-completed_round_valuation_usd", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "completed_round_valuation_usd", "label": "보도상 완료 라운드 기업가치", "value": "35000000000", "unit": "USD", "meaning": "보도상 최근 완료 F 라운드의 투자 후 지분가치", "metricKind": "completed_round_valuation_usd", "asOfDate": "2026-07-30", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730", "DR_STCN_MOONSHOT_20260730" ], "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "REPORTED_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "roundId": "moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "displayValue": "$35B · 투자 후 가치", "note": "STCN 7/30 원문에서 POST_MONEY 확인. 실제 완료일은 recent라는 범위, 보통주/우선주·희석 조건은 미공개." }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-completed_round_funding_usd", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "completed_round_funding_usd", "label": "보도상 라운드 투자금", "value": "3500000000", "unit": "USD", "meaning": "같은 마감 라운드의 조달 투자금; 기업가치와 별도", "metricKind": "completed_round_funding_usd", "asOfDate": "2026-07-30", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730" ], "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "REPORTED_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "roundId": "moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "displayValue": "$3.5B 투자금" }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-new_round_pre_money_target_usd", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "new_round_pre_money_target_usd", "label": "추가 라운드 투자 전 목표가치", "value": "50000000000", "unit": "USD", "meaning": "신규 투자자를 접촉 중인 추가 라운드 pre-money 목표; 완료 가치·IPO 가치 아님", "metricKind": "new_round_pre_money_target_usd", "asOfDate": "2026-09-05", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "REPORTED_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "roundId": "moonshot-additional-round-target-2026", "displayValue": "$50B pre-money 목표" }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-ipo_proceeds_target_usd", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "ipo_proceeds_target_usd", "label": "보도상 IPO 조달 목표", "value": "3000000000–5000000000", "unit": "USD_RANGE", "meaning": "IPO에서 조달하려는 금액 범위; 기업가치와 별도", "metricKind": "ipo_proceeds_target_usd", "asOfDate": "2026-09-05", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "REPORTED_PROSPECTIVE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "REPORTED_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "low": "3000000000", "high": "5000000000", "displayValue": "$3–5B 조달 목표" }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-reported_investors", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "reported_investors", "label": "보도상 주요 투자자", "value": "Alibaba · Tencent · 5Y Capital", "unit": "ORGANIZATIONS", "meaning": "IPO 추진 보도에 명시된 주요 기존 투자자", "metricKind": "reported_investors", "asOfDate": "2026-09-05", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "REPORTED_SOURCE_REGISTERED" }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-ipo_reported_milestone", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "ipo_reported_milestone", "label": "보도상 IPO 이정표", "value": "홍콩 IPO 비공개 신청 보도", "unit": "TEXT", "meaning": "익명 관계자 3명을 인용한 Reuters 보도; 공개 신청서 직접 확보 아님", "metricKind": "ipo_reported_milestone", "asOfDate": "2026-09-03", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-CNA-20260903" ], "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "REPORTED_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "note": "거래소 접수·승인 확인 또는 발행법인 확정으로 승격하지 않음." }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-corporate_restructuring", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "corporate_restructuring", "label": "보도상 지배구조 개편", "value": "중국 내 법인을 주식회사 형태로 변경", "unit": "TEXT", "meaning": "IPO 준비를 위한 기업 구조 개편 보도", "metricKind": "corporate_restructuring", "asOfDate": "2026-08-09", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-STRUCTURE-20260809" ], "provenance": "reported", "currentness": "AS_OF_DATE", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PUBLISHER_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "REPORTED_SOURCE_REGISTERED", "note": "역외 법인 정리와 해외 투자자 지분 이전이 진행 중이라고 보도. IPO 발행법인·주식 기준은 미확정." }, { "factId": "moonshot-ai-business", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "business", "label": "주요 사업", "value": "AGI 연구 및 공개 모델·AI 에이전트 서비스", "unit": "TEXT", "meaning": "공식 About의 연구 지향과 제품군에 근거한 사업 설명", "metricKind": "business", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ABOUT" ], "provenance": "official", "currentness": "CURRENT_VERIFIED", "applicationStatus": "REGISTERED", "evidenceStatus": "PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERIFIED", "status": "OFFICIAL_SOURCE_REGISTERED" } ], "disclosures": [ { "companyId": "openai", "fieldKey": "employee_count", "value": null, "unit": "PEOPLE", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-ROUND-20260331", "CF-OAI-STRUCTURE", "CF-OAI-S1-20260608", "CF-OAI-RSS", "CF-OAI-HQ", "CF-OAI-IPO-CNA-20260626" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "openai", "fieldKey": "cash_flow", "value": null, "unit": "USD", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-ROUND-20260331", "CF-OAI-STRUCTURE", "CF-OAI-S1-20260608", "CF-OAI-RSS", "CF-OAI-HQ", "CF-OAI-IPO-CNA-20260626" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "openai", "fieldKey": "confirmed_ipo_trading_date", "value": null, "unit": "DATE", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-ROUND-20260331", "CF-OAI-STRUCTURE", "CF-OAI-S1-20260608", "CF-OAI-RSS", "CF-OAI-HQ", "CF-OAI-IPO-CNA-20260626" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "anthropic", "fieldKey": "employee_count", "value": null, "unit": "PEOPLE", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-ROUND-20260528", "CF-ANTH-S1-20260601", "CF-ANTH-LEADERSHIP", "CF-ANTH-COMPANY", "CF-ANTH-FOUNDED", "CF-ANTH-PRIVACY", "CF-ANTH-IPO-CNA-20260905", "CF-ANTH-IPO-SCENARIO-20260902" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "anthropic", "fieldKey": "cash_flow", "value": null, "unit": "USD", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-ROUND-20260528", "CF-ANTH-S1-20260601", "CF-ANTH-LEADERSHIP", "CF-ANTH-COMPANY", "CF-ANTH-FOUNDED", "CF-ANTH-PRIVACY", "CF-ANTH-IPO-CNA-20260905", "CF-ANTH-IPO-SCENARIO-20260902" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "anthropic", "fieldKey": "confirmed_ipo_trading_date", "value": null, "unit": "DATE", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-ROUND-20260528", "CF-ANTH-S1-20260601", "CF-ANTH-LEADERSHIP", "CF-ANTH-COMPANY", "CF-ANTH-FOUNDED", "CF-ANTH-PRIVACY", "CF-ANTH-IPO-CNA-20260905", "CF-ANTH-IPO-SCENARIO-20260902" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "employee_count", "value": null, "unit": "PEOPLE", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ABOUT", "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730", "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905", "CF-MOON-STRUCTURE-20260809", "CF-MOON-IPO-CNA-20260903", "CF-MOON-TERMS", "CF-MOON-STATUS-PRIVACY" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "cash_flow", "value": null, "unit": "USD", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ABOUT", "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730", "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905", "CF-MOON-STRUCTURE-20260809", "CF-MOON-IPO-CNA-20260903", "CF-MOON-TERMS", "CF-MOON-STATUS-PRIVACY" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "confirmed_ipo_trading_date", "value": null, "unit": "DATE", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "meaning": "이번에 검토한 공식 회사 소개·라운드 발표·IPO 공지·언론 원문에서 신뢰할 현재 수치를 확보하지 못함", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ABOUT", "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730", "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905", "CF-MOON-STRUCTURE-20260809", "CF-MOON-IPO-CNA-20260903", "CF-MOON-TERMS", "CF-MOON-STATUS-PRIVACY" ], "note": "전세계에 공개 정보가 없다는 단정이나 미작업 상태가 아님.", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z" }, { "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "fieldKey": "ipo_issuing_legal_entity", "value": null, "unit": "LEGAL_ENTITY", "asOfDate": "2026-09-08", "datePrecision": "DAY", "verifiedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "availability": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-TERMS", "CF-MOON-STATUS-PRIVACY", "CF-MOON-IPO-CNA-20260903" ], "meaning": "서비스 운영법인을 IPO 발행법인으로 간주하지 않음", "status": "RESEARCHED_UNAVAILABLE_IN_REVIEWED_SOURCES", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "note": "서비스 운영법인을 IPO 발행법인으로 간주하지 않음" } ], "persistence": { "state": "restored", "restoredAt": "2026-09-08T04:02:03.241Z", "newsCount": 199, "predictionCount": 2, "registrySchemaVersion": 2 }, "fx": { "quoteCurrency": "USDT", "usdPerQuote": "0.99967000", "state": "live", "assumption": null, "asOf": "2026-09-08T04:03:04.676Z", "provider": "Kraken", "pair": "USDT/USD", "receivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:04.676Z", "sourceEventAt": null, "timestampSemantics": "REST_RECEIVED_AT_ONLY_LAST_TRADE_TIME_NOT_PROVIDED", "sourceUrl": "https://api.kraken.com/0/public/Ticker?pair=USDTZUSD", "rawSha256": "197a1766202a30d96fd49211893d76ae6e4f7196831c920187dd5b01d5a8246e", "lastSuccessfulFetchAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:04.676Z", "error": null }, "history": [ { "at": "2026-09-07", "kind": "research_import", "note": "첨부 리서치 후보를 원본 출처와 함께 등록. 환산계수와 중요값 자동 승인 없음." }, { "at": "2026-09-07T14:58:07.138Z", "kind": "PUBLIC_CLASSIFICATION_REVIEW", "note": "공식 발행사·거래소 명부로 7개 상장사 분류 검토. Nokia/SMIC 메타데이터 충돌은 승인하지 않음. 가치 계수 승인과 별개." }, { "at": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "kind": "PUBLIC_SOURCE_CONTENT_REGISTERED", "note": "원문 확인 후 회사별 14개 사실, 가치 기준 6개, IPO 사건 원장 12개를 등록. 단순 원문 사실 등록을 사용자 승인 대기로 넘기지 않음." }, { "at": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "kind": "MOONSHOT_REFERENCE_CLARIFIED", "referenceId": "moonshot-funding-reported-20260903", "before": { "asOfDate": "2026-09-03", "preOrPostMoney": "UNKNOWN", "sourceRefs": [ "S14" ] }, "after": { "asOfDate": "2026-09-05", "preOrPostMoney": "PRE_MONEY", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ] }, "note": "같은 추가 라운드의 목표 pre-money임을 원문으로 명확히 확인. 별개 완료 라운드 35B와 분리." }, { "at": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "kind": "IPO_OUTLOOK_CONFLICTS_PRESERVED", "note": "Anthropic 9월말~10월초 상장 vs 10월중순 마케팅 이후 전망, Moonshot 2026년 조기 vs 2027년 이후 전망을 출처별 보존. 어느 전망도 확정일로 승격하지 않음." }, { "eventId": "bybit-moonshotusdt-document-2026-08-07-registered", "at": "2026-09-07T16:07:30.581Z", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "instrumentId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT", "operation": "DOCUMENT_FACTOR_VERIFIED_AND_REGISTERED", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BYBIT-MOONSHOT", "CT-BYBIT-TRADFI-HELP" ], "note": "수치가 명시된 원문을 개별 대조해 참고 계산용으로 등록. 현행 계약 승인과 분리; approvedAt은 null." }, { "eventId": "bybit-moonshotusdt-current-2026-09-08-approved", "at": "2026-09-08T01:51:47.285Z", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "instrumentId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT", "operation": "CURRENT_CONTRACT_RULE_VERIFIED_FROM_RENDERED_OFFICIAL_UI", "previousVersion": "bybit-moonshotusdt-document-2026-08-07", "newVersion": "bybit-moonshotusdt-current-2026-09-08", "effectiveFrom": "2026-09-08T01:44:53.380Z", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BYBIT-MOONSHOT-CURRENT-UI", "CT-BYBIT-MOONSHOT", "CT-BYBIT-TRADFI-HELP" ], "numericFactorChanged": false, "exchangeRebaseEvent": null, "note": "등록된 current 구간은 이 서비스의 첫 현행 설명 직접 관측시각부터입니다. 거래소의 새로운 리베이스 시행일을 추정한 것이 아니며 과거 문서 구간의 검증 수준을 소급 승격하지 않습니다." } ], "audit": { "atUtc": "2026-09-08T04:02:03.254Z", "atKst": "2026-09-08 13:02:05 +09:00", "completeUniverse": false, "paginationComplete": true, "pages": [ { "venue": "bybit", "scope": "default", "url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/instruments-info?category=linear&limit=1000", "page": 1, "count": 859, "atUtc": "2026-09-08T04:02:03.803Z", "atKst": "2026-09-08 13:02:03 +09:00", "path": "[서버 내부 증거 경로 비공개]", "sha256": "04246382ed18bf98e6e593702789d6a4642d60127e7eff29ae6696240abc379f" }, { "venue": "binance", "scope": "all", "url": "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/exchangeInfo", "page": 1, "count": 897, "atUtc": "2026-09-08T04:02:03.819Z", "atKst": "2026-09-08 13:02:03 +09:00", "path": "[서버 내부 증거 경로 비공개]", "sha256": "177898e1168169370a5a20f9dda222f0d5f522ba0983339c2efca8b9034afd7b" }, { "venue": "bybit", "scope": "PreLaunch", "url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/instruments-info?category=linear&limit=1000&status=PreLaunch", "page": 1, "count": 4, "atUtc": "2026-09-08T04:02:03.904Z", "atKst": "2026-09-08 13:02:03 +09:00", "path": "[서버 내부 증거 경로 비공개]", "sha256": "19906108aa6b1796ef7ef959d98d2a6cdd95da0aecb186be10861f8435c26034" }, { "venue": "bybit", "scope": "PendingOpen", "url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/instruments-info?category=linear&limit=1000&status=PendingOpen", "page": 1, "count": 0, "atUtc": "2026-09-08T04:02:04.042Z", "atKst": "2026-09-08 13:02:04 +09:00", "path": "[서버 내부 증거 경로 비공개]", "sha256": "c1a560cf6882cc72d3d403c27c1186d92248e2fded7c90beaca1a96e74e2a3a9" } ], "errors": [], "rawCount": 1760, "deduplicatedCount": 1760, "candidateCount": 430, "approvedPrivateCount": 5, "unresolvedCount": 2, "rows": [ { "instrumentId": "bybit:AALUSDT", "venue": "bybit", "symbol": "AALUSDT", "companyId": null, "classification": "PUBLIC_COMPANY", "approvalStatus": "approved", "reason": "공식 Nasdaq Symbol Directory 티커·발행사명 대조: American Airlines Group, Inc. - 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"limitations": [ "환산계수는 계약상 추정 단위 수이며 실제 발행주식 수·주식 소유권을 의미하지 않습니다." ] } ], "ipoTiming": { "officialStage": "CONFIDENTIAL_FILED", "state": "sourced_forecast", "primary": { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "NAMED_COMPANY_STATEMENT_REPORTED", "timingId": "openai-cfo-2027-20260820", "companyId": "openai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2027-01-01", "expectedEnd": "2027-12-31", "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_MK_OPENAI_20260820" ], "publishedAt": "2026-08-20T03:05:19Z", "displayText": "2027년 목표 · CFO 발언 보도", "boundarySemantics": "연도 경계. 1월 1일이나 12월 31일이 예상 거래일이라는 뜻이 아님.", "note": "8/19 현지시간 CFO 사내 발언을 매일경제가 보도. 성장과 시장 여건에 따라 앞당길 수 있음. 이전 다른 저자의 가치 전망을 자동 철회하지 않음.", "daysToStart": 115, "daysToEnd": 479, "countdownLabel": "기간 시작까지 115일 · 종료까지 479일", "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "연도 단위" }, "alternatives": [ { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "confidenceKind": "NAMED_ANALYST_FORECAST", "timingId": "openai-douglas-2h26-20260527", "companyId": "openai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2026-07-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-12-31", "datePrecision": "HALF_YEAR", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T15:26:37Z", "displayText": "당시 전망: 2026년 하반기", "boundarySemantics": "하반기의 시작·종료 경계이며 거래일 아님.", "daysToStart": -69, "daysToEnd": 114, "countdownLabel": "예상 기간 진행 중 · 종료까지 114일", "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "반기 단위" } ], "processMilestones": [], "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527", "DR_MK_OPENAI_20260820" ], "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z" }, "ipoLowerScenario": { "scenarioId": "funding-hold:openai-funding-20260331", "companyId": "openai", "state": "assumption_reference", "valueUsd": "852000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "valuationBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "methodologyId": "latest-completed-funding-value-maintained", "version": "1.0.0", "inputs": { "referenceId": "openai-funding-20260331", "roundId": "openai-round-20260331", "valueUsd": "852000000000", "preOrPostMoney": "POST_MONEY", "equityOrEnterprise": "EQUITY", "assumption": "IPO 시점에도 최근 완료 투자 가치가 유지된다고 가정" }, "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-ROUND-20260331" ], "publishedAt": "2026-03-31", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "countsAsIpoLowerEstimate": false, "sampleSize": 1, "limitations": [ "IPO 최소가·전문가 목표가·보장 하한이 아닙니다.", "현재 유효한 독립 IPO 하단 추정 근거가 추가로 필요합니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·우선권 변화를 반영하지 않은 참고 가정입니다." ] }, "lowerScenarioAlternatives": [ { "scenarioId": "expert-boundary:openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "companyId": "openai", "state": "dated_forecast_boundary", "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "1000000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null, "label": "과거 단일 전망의 참고 경계 · AT_LEAST", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "methodologyId": "individual-expert-explicit-lower-bound", "version": "1.0.0", "inputs": { "forecastId": "openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "analysisId": "douglas-openai-ipo-20260527", "kind": "direct_forecast", "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED" }, "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T15:26:37Z", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "countsAsIpoLowerEstimate": false, "sampleSize": 1, "limitations": [ "한 명의 전망이며 시장 전체의 보수적 하한이나 보장가가 아닙니다.", "발표 이후 가치 전망이 재확인되지 않아 현재 IPO 하단 추정 완료로 집계하지 않습니다.", "2026년 하반기 IPO를 전제로 발표한 당시 전망", "공모가 기준인지 첫날 종가인지와 희석 주식 기준은 공개 요약에 없음", "동일 Smartkarma 게재본은 같은 analysisId의 중복본이다. 2027년 목표 보도와 가치 전망 발표일을 구분하며 최신 재확인이나 보수적 최소값으로 해석하지 않는다." ] } ], "expertForecasts": [ { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "1000000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "AT_LEAST", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": "2026-07-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-12-31", "timingPrecision": "HALF_YEAR", "assumptions": [ "2026년 하반기 IPO를 전제로 발표한 당시 전망", "공모가 기준인지 첫날 종가인지와 희석 주식 기준은 공개 요약에 없음" ], "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": true, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_SUMMARY_ONLY", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "analysisId": "douglas-openai-ipo-20260527", "companyId": "openai", "person": "Douglas Kim", "affiliation": "Douglas Research Insights", "kind": "direct_forecast", "displayValue": "$1T 이상", "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T15:26:37Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "note": "동일 Smartkarma 게재본은 같은 analysisId의 중복본이다. 2027년 목표 보도와 가치 전망 발표일을 구분하며 최신 재확인이나 보수적 최소값으로 해석하지 않는다." } ], "comparisons": [ { "comparisonId": "binance:OPENAIUSDT:funding-hold:openai-funding-20260331", "instrumentId": "binance:OPENAIUSDT", "referenceId": "funding-hold:openai-funding-20260331", "category": "lower_scenario", "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "currentValueUsd": "1444132409416.9581", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.845Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-ROUND-20260331" ], "publishedAt": "2026-03-31", "premium": { "point": "69.4991090864974295774647887323943661972", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-41.0026397548975907186454084207011075611", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "binance:OPENAIUSDT:openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "instrumentId": "binance:OPENAIUSDT", "referenceId": "openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "category": "expert_forecast", "label": "Douglas Kim · 전망", "currentValueUsd": "1444132409416.9581", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.845Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T15:26:37Z", "premium": { "point": null, "low": null, "high": "44.41324094169581", "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": true }, "scenarioChange": { "point": null, "low": "-30.75427201279059943502982209002477413275", "high": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "bybit:OPENAIUSDT:funding-hold:openai-funding-20260331", "instrumentId": "bybit:OPENAIUSDT", "referenceId": "funding-hold:openai-funding-20260331", "category": "lower_scenario", "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "currentValueUsd": "1481940798100", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.994Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-OAI-ROUND-20260331" ], "publishedAt": "2026-03-31", "premium": { "point": "73.9367133920187793427230046948356807512", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-42.50782480026521108029679799123144202747", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "bybit:OPENAIUSDT:openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "instrumentId": "bybit:OPENAIUSDT", "referenceId": "openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "category": "expert_forecast", "label": "Douglas Kim · 전망", "currentValueUsd": "1481940798100", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.994Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T15:26:37Z", "premium": { "point": null, "low": null, "high": "48.19407981", "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": true }, "scenarioChange": { "point": null, "low": "-32.52092112707184399095868308829981458623", "high": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] } ], "predictionTiming": [], "predictionValuation": [], "coverage": { "currentMarketValue": "available", "ipoTiming": "sourced_forecast", "ipoLowerScenario": "assumption_only", "expertForecasts": "sourced", "independentDirectTargets": 1, "possibilityAssessments": 0, "coreComplete": false } }, { "companyId": "anthropic", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "currentMarketValue": [ { "instrumentId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT", "companyId": "anthropic", "venue": "binance", "symbol": "ANTHROPICUSDT", "valuationBasis": "CONTRACT_IMPLIED_NOTIONAL_VALUE", "contract": { "value": "1993640882350", "currency": "USDT", "mark": "1993.64088235", "priceAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.766Z", "receivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.846Z", "factorVersion": "binance-anthropicusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factor": "1000000000", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BINANCE-ANTHROPIC-CURRENT-UI", "CT-BINANCE-ANTHROPIC-SPEC", "CT-BINANCE-LIVE-INDEX", "CT-BINANCE-REBASE-HELP", "CT-BINANCE-TRANSITIONS" ], "quality": "current_verified", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:49:53.737Z", "fxReceivedAt": null, "fxUsdPerQuote": null }, "usd": { "value": "1992982980858.8245", "currency": "USD", "mark": "1993.64088235", "priceAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.766Z", "receivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.846Z", "factorVersion": "binance-anthropicusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factor": "1000000000", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BINANCE-ANTHROPIC-CURRENT-UI", "CT-BINANCE-ANTHROPIC-SPEC", "CT-BINANCE-LIVE-INDEX", "CT-BINANCE-REBASE-HELP", "CT-BINANCE-TRANSITIONS" ], "quality": "current_verified", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:49:53.737Z", "fxReceivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:04.676Z", "fxUsdPerQuote": "0.99967000" }, "contractFreshness": "live", "usdFreshness": "live", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "limitations": [ "환산계수는 계약상 추정 단위 수이며 실제 발행주식 수·주식 소유권을 의미하지 않습니다." ] }, { "instrumentId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT", "companyId": "anthropic", "venue": "bybit", "symbol": "ANTHROPICUSDT", "valuationBasis": "CONTRACT_IMPLIED_NOTIONAL_VALUE", "contract": { "value": "2007980000000", "currency": "USDT", "mark": "2007.98", "priceAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.531Z", "receivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.490Z", "factorVersion": "bybit-anthropicusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factor": "1000000000", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BYBIT-ANTHROPIC-CURRENT-UI", "CT-BYBIT-OPENAI-ANTHROPIC", "CT-BYBIT-TRADFI-HELP" ], "quality": "current_verified", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:48:05.993Z", "fxReceivedAt": null, "fxUsdPerQuote": null }, "usd": { "value": "2007317366600", "currency": "USD", "mark": "2007.98", "priceAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.531Z", "receivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.490Z", "factorVersion": "bybit-anthropicusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factor": "1000000000", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BYBIT-ANTHROPIC-CURRENT-UI", "CT-BYBIT-OPENAI-ANTHROPIC", "CT-BYBIT-TRADFI-HELP" ], "quality": "current_verified", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:48:05.993Z", "fxReceivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:04.676Z", "fxUsdPerQuote": "0.99967000" }, "contractFreshness": "live", "usdFreshness": "live", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "limitations": [ "환산계수는 계약상 추정 단위 수이며 실제 발행주식 수·주식 소유권을 의미하지 않습니다." ] } ], "ipoTiming": { "officialStage": "CONFIDENTIAL_FILED", "state": "sourced_forecast", "primary": { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-reuters-listing-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": "2026-11-03", "endExclusive": true, "datePrecision": "WINDOW", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905", "DR_FEC_ELECTION_2026" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "displayText": "11월 중간선거 며칠 전 상장 완료 전망", "boundarySemantics": "11월 3일은 출처가 언급한 중간선거의 달력상 경계이며 예상 IPO일이 아님. endExclusive=true. 며칠 전이라는 정성 표현으로부터 임의 시작일을 생성하지 않음.", "note": "Reuters 원문은 10월 중순 이후 마케팅을 시작하고 11월 중간선거 며칠 전 완료할 전망. 확정 거래일은 없고 계획은 변경 가능.", "daysToStart": null, "daysToEnd": 56, "countdownLabel": "참고 경계까지 56일 · 실제 IPO일 미정", "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "기간 전망" }, "alternatives": [ { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "INSTITUTION_REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-kb-listing-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2026-09-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "datePrecision": "WINDOW", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_KB_ANTHROPIC_20260904" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04", "displayText": "2026년 9~10월 전망 · KB증권", "boundarySemantics": "9~10월 두 달의 경계. 특정 거래일 아님.", "daysToStart": -7, "daysToEnd": 53, "countdownLabel": "예상 기간 진행 중 · 종료까지 53일", "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "기간 전망" }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "confidenceKind": "QUOTED_MEDIA_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-douglas-ft-october-20260813", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2026-10-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "datePrecision": "MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_ANTHROPIC_20260813" ], "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T16:17:16Z", "displayText": "2026년 10월 전망 · FT 인용 해설", "boundarySemantics": "월 경계이며 정확한 상장일 아님.", "daysToStart": 23, "daysToEnd": 53, "countdownLabel": "기간 시작까지 23일 · 종료까지 53일", "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "월 단위" } ], "processMilestones": [ { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-reuters-marketing-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_MARKETING_START", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "PART_OF_MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "displayText": "이르면 2026년 10월 중순 마케팅 시작", "boundarySemantics": "중순은 질적 시기 표현이어서 날짜 경계를 생성하지 않음. at earliest는 종료 상한이 없으며 거래 개시 전망이 아님.", "note": "확정 로드쇼 시작일 아님. 마케팅 준비 단계와 IPO 완료를 별도 보존.", "daysToStart": null, "daysToEnd": null, "countdownLabel": null, "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "월의 일부 기간" }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-reuters-prospectus-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "PROSPECTUS_PUBLICATION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "PART_OF_MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "displayText": "2026년 9월 하순 신고서 공개 전망", "boundarySemantics": "late September의 질적 시기만 보존하고 21일을 생성하지 않음. 상장일 아님.", "daysToStart": null, "daysToEnd": null, "countdownLabel": null, "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "월의 일부 기간" } ], "sourceRefs": [ "DR_KB_ANTHROPIC_20260904", "DR_DOUGLAS_ANTHROPIC_20260813", "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905", "DR_FEC_ELECTION_2026" ], "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z" }, "ipoLowerScenario": { "scenarioId": "funding-hold:anthropic-funding-20260528", "companyId": "anthropic", "state": "assumption_reference", "valueUsd": "965000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "valuationBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "methodologyId": "latest-completed-funding-value-maintained", "version": "1.0.0", "inputs": { "referenceId": "anthropic-funding-20260528", "roundId": "anthropic-series-h-20260528", "valueUsd": "965000000000", "preOrPostMoney": "POST_MONEY", "equityOrEnterprise": "EQUITY", "assumption": "IPO 시점에도 최근 완료 투자 가치가 유지된다고 가정" }, "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-ROUND-20260528" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-28", "checkedAt": "2026-09-07T16:07:23.820Z", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "countsAsIpoLowerEstimate": false, "sampleSize": 1, "limitations": [ "IPO 최소가·전문가 목표가·보장 하한이 아닙니다.", "현재 유효한 독립 IPO 하단 추정 근거가 추가로 필요합니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·우선권 변화를 반영하지 않은 참고 가정입니다." ] }, "lowerScenarioAlternatives": [], "expertForecasts": [ { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "REPORTED_VALUE_ASSESSED_NOT_TARGET", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": "2026-09-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "timingPrecision": "WINDOW", "assumptions": [ "시장 예상 시가총액 $2T를 조건으로 검토", "연환산 매출 $65B와 AI 비교기업의 높은 배수", "OpenAI 가격 인하와 미국 자금 공급 여력이 IPO 흥행에 부담" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "DAY", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-kim-minkyu-assessment-20260904", "analysisId": "kb-kim-minkyu-anthropic-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "김민규", "affiliation": "KB증권 · 애널리스트", "kind": "possibility_assessment", "displayValue": "$2T를 고평가로 단정하기 어려움", "publishedAt": "2026-09-04", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_KB_ANTHROPIC_20260904" ], "note": "시장 전망 수치를 놓고 적정성과 흥행 위험을 평가한 독립 해설이다. KB 자체 산출 목표가·공모가 범위로 등록하지 않는다. 조달 규모 $100B는 회사 시가총액과 분리한다." }, { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "POSSIBLE_NOT_TARGET", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "AI가 추가 생산성을 얼마나 만들어내는지 검증 필요", "높은 가치를 장기간 유지할 수 있는지는 의문" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-merkel-possibility-20260815", "analysisId": "reuters-merkel-anthropic-20260815", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "David Merkel", "affiliation": "Aleph Investments · Principal", "kind": "possibility_assessment", "displayValue": "$2T 가능성 · 지속성에는 신중", "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T00:11:58Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-17T06:59:56Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_MERKEL_20260815" ], "note": "Reuters의 실명 인터뷰. $2T 도달 가능성을 인정한 발언이며 확정 목표가·하한·매수 추천이 아니다. 기사 내 2028년 매출 전망은 회사·익명 취재원 자료이며 Merkel의 자체 계산으로 귀속하지 않는다." }, { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "COULD_NOT_TARGET", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "공모 일정과 시장 상황은 변경 가능" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-investors-reuters-20260904", "analysisId": "reuters-anthropic-outlook-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": null, "affiliation": null, "kind": "anonymous_investor", "displayValue": "일부 익명 투자자의 $2T 가능성", "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905" ], "note": "기사에 등장하는 일부 투자자의 가능성 수치다. 실명 전문가 수와 기관 자체 모델 집계에서 제외한다." }, { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "REPORTED_VALUE_COMMENTARY", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "빠른 매출 증가가 충분한 이익으로 이어져야 높은 가치가 성립", "저렴한 모델로의 전환과 경쟁이 가치 유지에 영향" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-rathbones-commentary-20260826", "analysisId": "rathbones-anthropic-commentary-20260826", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "Will Findlay-Wilson", "affiliation": "Rathbones · Equity Analyst", "kind": "quoted_commentary", "displayValue": "보도된 $2T에 대한 기관 해설", "publishedAt": "2026-08-25T20:46:00Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-26T09:41:42Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_RATHBONES_20260826" ], "note": "원문은 뉴스로 알려진 $2T를 논평한다. Rathbones 자체 산출 목표가나 보수 모델이 아니다. 화면 최종 갱신 8/26, 최초 발행 메타 8/25를 분리했다." }, { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "2000000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "REPORTED_AT_LEAST", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": "2026-10-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "timingPrecision": "MONTH", "assumptions": [ "FT의 IPO 보도 내용이 실현되는 경우" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-douglas-ft-commentary-20260813", "analysisId": "douglas-anthropic-ft-commentary-20260813", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "Douglas Kim", "affiliation": "Douglas Research Insights", "kind": "quoted_commentary", "displayValue": "FT 보도 $2T 이상을 전제로 한 해설", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T16:17:16Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_ANTHROPIC_20260813", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "quotedFromSourceRefs": [ "DR_FT_ANTHROPIC_20260812" ], "upstreamAnalysisId": "ft-anthropic-ipo-2t-20260812", "note": "$2T는 저자의 독립 목표가가 아닌 FT 보도 재인용. 본문의 과거 $1.2~1.5T 시장 기대 설명은 현재 범위나 최소값으로 사용하지 않는다." } ], "comparisons": [ { "comparisonId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT:funding-hold:anthropic-funding-20260528", "instrumentId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT", "referenceId": "funding-hold:anthropic-funding-20260528", "category": "lower_scenario", "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "currentValueUsd": "1992982980858.8245", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.846Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-ROUND-20260528" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-28", "premium": { "point": "106.5267337677538341968911917098445595855", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-51.58011838193629762994400993635788632696", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT:anthropic-kim-minkyu-assessment-20260904", "instrumentId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT", "referenceId": "anthropic-kim-minkyu-assessment-20260904", "category": "expert_forecast", "label": "김민규 · 가능성 평가", "currentValueUsd": "1992982980858.8245", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.846Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_KB_ANTHROPIC_20260904" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04", "premium": { "point": "-0.350850957058775", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "0.3520862550543054301678550541805464726", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT:anthropic-merkel-possibility-20260815", "instrumentId": "binance:ANTHROPICUSDT", "referenceId": "anthropic-merkel-possibility-20260815", "category": "expert_forecast", "label": "David Merkel · 가능성 평가", "currentValueUsd": "1992982980858.8245", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.846Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_MERKEL_20260815" ], "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T00:11:58Z", "premium": { "point": "-0.350850957058775", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "0.3520862550543054301678550541805464726", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT:funding-hold:anthropic-funding-20260528", "instrumentId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT", "referenceId": "funding-hold:anthropic-funding-20260528", "category": "lower_scenario", "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "currentValueUsd": "2007317366600", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.490Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-ANTH-ROUND-20260528" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-28", "premium": { "point": "108.0121623419689119170984455958549222798", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-51.92588795091631127225061492177098568824", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT:anthropic-kim-minkyu-assessment-20260904", "instrumentId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT", "referenceId": "anthropic-kim-minkyu-assessment-20260904", "category": "expert_forecast", "label": "김민규 · 가능성 평가", "currentValueUsd": "2007317366600", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.490Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_KB_ANTHROPIC_20260904" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04", "premium": { "point": "0.36586833", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-0.36453461329805445026034180677924494972", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT:anthropic-merkel-possibility-20260815", "instrumentId": "bybit:ANTHROPICUSDT", "referenceId": "anthropic-merkel-possibility-20260815", "category": "expert_forecast", "label": "David Merkel · 가능성 평가", "currentValueUsd": "2007317366600", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.490Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_MERKEL_20260815" ], "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T00:11:58Z", "premium": { "point": "0.36586833", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-0.36453461329805445026034180677924494972", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] } ], "predictionTiming": [], "predictionValuation": [], "coverage": { "currentMarketValue": "available", "ipoTiming": "sourced_forecast", "ipoLowerScenario": "assumption_only", "expertForecasts": "sourced", "independentDirectTargets": 0, "possibilityAssessments": 2, "coreComplete": false } }, { "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "currentMarketValue": [ { "instrumentId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "venue": "bybit", "symbol": "MOONSHOTUSDT", "valuationBasis": "CONTRACT_IMPLIED_NOTIONAL_VALUE", "contract": { "value": "73230000000", "currency": "USDT", "mark": "73.23", "priceAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.361Z", "receivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.321Z", "factorVersion": "bybit-moonshotusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factor": "1000000000", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BYBIT-MOONSHOT-CURRENT-UI", "CT-BYBIT-MOONSHOT", "CT-BYBIT-TRADFI-HELP" ], "quality": "current_verified", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:48:15.114Z", "fxReceivedAt": null, "fxUsdPerQuote": null }, "usd": { "value": "73205834100", "currency": "USD", "mark": "73.23", "priceAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:21.361Z", "receivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.321Z", "factorVersion": "bybit-moonshotusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factor": "1000000000", "sourceRefs": [ "CT-BYBIT-MOONSHOT-CURRENT-UI", "CT-BYBIT-MOONSHOT", "CT-BYBIT-TRADFI-HELP" ], "quality": "current_verified", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:48:15.114Z", "fxReceivedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:04.676Z", "fxUsdPerQuote": "0.99967000" }, "contractFreshness": "live", "usdFreshness": "live", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "limitations": [ "환산계수는 계약상 추정 단위 수이며 실제 발행주식 수·주식 소유권을 의미하지 않습니다." ] } ], "ipoTiming": { "officialStage": "CONFIDENTIAL_FILED_REPORTED", "state": "sourced_forecast", "primary": { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": "moonshot-zdnet-not-before-2027-20260809", "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "EARLIEST_POSSIBLE_YEAR", "timingId": "moonshot-zdnet-earliest-2026-20260905", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T06:24:00Z", "displayText": "이르면 2026년 IPO 검토 · 후속 보도", "boundarySemantics": "이르면 올해는 최종 완료 범위를 명시하지 않으므로 두 날짜 경계는 null. 2026년이라는 가능한 시기는 displayText와 YEAR 정밀도로 보존.", "note": "비공개 신청 보도와 전망을 분리. 소식에 대해 회사와 주관사는 공식 입장을 내놓지 않음.", "daysToStart": null, "daysToEnd": null, "countdownLabel": null, "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "연도 단위" }, "alternatives": [ { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "confidenceKind": "NAMED_ANALYST_FORECAST", "timingId": "moonshot-douglas-year-turn-20260723", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR_TURN", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_MOONSHOT_20260723" ], "publishedAt": "2026-07-23T10:03:37Z", "displayText": "2026년 말~2027년 초 전망", "boundarySemantics": "연말/연초의 질적 기간 표현을 보존. 원문에 없는 Q4/Q1 또는 일 경계는 만들지 않음.", "note": "공개 요약의 약 6개월 후 표현도 함께 확인. 단일 특정 날짜로 변환하지 않음.", "daysToStart": null, "daysToEnd": null, "countdownLabel": null, "windowElapsed": false, "precisionLabel": "연말·연초" } ], "processMilestones": [], "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_MOONSHOT_20260723", "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z" }, "ipoLowerScenario": { "scenarioId": "funding-hold:moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "state": "assumption_reference", "valueUsd": "35000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "valuationBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "methodologyId": "latest-completed-funding-value-maintained", "version": "1.0.0", "inputs": { "referenceId": "moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "roundId": "moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "valueUsd": "35000000000", "preOrPostMoney": "POST_MONEY", "equityOrEnterprise": "EQUITY", "assumption": "IPO 시점에도 최근 완료 투자 가치가 유지된다고 가정" }, "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730", "DR_STCN_MOONSHOT_20260730" ], "publishedAt": "2026-07-30", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "countsAsIpoLowerEstimate": false, "sampleSize": 1, "limitations": [ "IPO 최소가·전문가 목표가·보장 하한이 아닙니다.", "현재 유효한 독립 IPO 하단 추정 근거가 추가로 필요합니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·우선권 변화를 반영하지 않은 참고 가정입니다." ] }, "lowerScenarioAlternatives": [ { "scenarioId": "expert-boundary:moonshot-douglas-ipo-20260723", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "state": "dated_forecast_boundary", "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "100000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": false, "highInclusive": null, "label": "과거 단일 전망의 참고 경계 · WELL_ABOVE_POSSIBLE", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "methodologyId": "individual-expert-explicit-lower-bound", "version": "1.0.0", "inputs": { "forecastId": "moonshot-douglas-ipo-20260723", "analysisId": "douglas-moonshot-ipo-20260723", "kind": "direct_forecast", "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED" }, "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_MOONSHOT_20260723", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "publishedAt": "2026-07-23T10:03:37Z", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "calculatedAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:22.774Z", "countsAsIpoLowerEstimate": false, "sampleSize": 1, "limitations": [ "한 명의 전망이며 시장 전체의 보수적 하한이나 보장가가 아닙니다.", "발표 이후 가치 전망이 재확인되지 않아 현재 IPO 하단 추정 완료로 집계하지 않습니다.", "IPO가 약 6개월 후 성사되는 경우", "공개 요약은 낙관 가능성을 말하며 수치 산식은 미공개", "$100B는 점추정이 아닌 열린 하한 표현이다. $50B 투자 라운드 목표와 분리하고 한 명의 낙관 전망을 전문가 평균·보수 하단으로 사용하지 않는다." ] } ], "expertForecasts": [ { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "100000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": false, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "WELL_ABOVE_POSSIBLE", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "YEAR_TURN", "assumptions": [ "IPO가 약 6개월 후 성사되는 경우", "공개 요약은 낙관 가능성을 말하며 수치 산식은 미공개" ], "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": true, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_SUMMARY_ONLY", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "moonshot-douglas-ipo-20260723", "analysisId": "douglas-moonshot-ipo-20260723", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "person": "Douglas Kim", "affiliation": "Douglas Research Insights", "kind": "direct_forecast", "displayValue": "$100B 크게 초과 가능", "publishedAt": "2026-07-23T10:03:37Z", "boundarySemantics": "연말/연초는 질적 기간 표현. 원문에 없는 분기·일 경계를 만들지 않고 정량 경계는 null로 보존.", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_MOONSHOT_20260723", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "note": "$100B는 점추정이 아닌 열린 하한 표현이다. $50B 투자 라운드 목표와 분리하고 한 명의 낙관 전망을 전문가 평균·보수 하단으로 사용하지 않는다." }, { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": null, "valuationBasis": "NO_IPO_VALUATION_FORECAST", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "오픈 모델 경쟁력과 비용 효율이 기업 수요로 전환되어야 함" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "DAY", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "moonshot-cathay-investor-commentary-20260717", "analysisId": "cathay-moonshot-investment-thesis-20260717", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "person": "Denis Barrier · Shendong Nie (Eric)", "affiliation": "Cathay Innovation", "kind": "quoted_commentary", "displayValue": "수치 없는 투자 논리", "publishedAt": "2026-07-17", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CATHAY_MOONSHOT" ], "note": "공동 저자의 동일 투자 분석 1건이다. Moonshot 투자자인 회사가 공개한 논리이며 신규 IPO 수치 전망은 없다. 숫자 전망·보수 모델 집계에 넣지 않는다." } ], "comparisons": [ { "comparisonId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT:funding-hold:moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "instrumentId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT", "referenceId": "funding-hold:moonshot-completed-round-reported-20260730", "category": "lower_scenario", "label": "최근 투자 가치 유지 가정", "currentValueUsd": "73205834100", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.321Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "FUNDING_POST_MONEY_EQUITY", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-ROUND-20260730", "DR_STCN_MOONSHOT_20260730" ], "publishedAt": "2026-07-30", "premium": { "point": "109.159526", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-52.18960287756628402380296080801024572986", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, { "comparisonId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT:moonshot-douglas-ipo-20260723", "instrumentId": "bybit:MOONSHOTUSDT", "referenceId": "moonshot-douglas-ipo-20260723", "category": "expert_forecast", "label": "Douglas Kim · 전망", "currentValueUsd": "73205834100", "currentValueAt": "2026-09-08T04:03:20.321Z", "currentFreshness": "live", "referenceBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_MOONSHOT_20260723", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "publishedAt": "2026-07-23T10:03:37Z", "premium": { "point": null, "low": null, "high": "-26.7941659", "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": false }, "scenarioChange": { "point": null, "low": "36.6011346355249027891343976913992979147", "high": null, "lowInclusive": false, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] } ], "predictionTiming": [], "predictionValuation": [], "coverage": { "currentMarketValue": "available", "ipoTiming": "sourced_forecast", "ipoLowerScenario": "assumption_only", "expertForecasts": "sourced", "independentDirectTargets": 1, "possibilityAssessments": 0, "coreComplete": false } } ], "expertForecasts": [ { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "1000000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "AT_LEAST", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": "2026-07-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-12-31", "timingPrecision": "HALF_YEAR", "assumptions": [ "2026년 하반기 IPO를 전제로 발표한 당시 전망", "공모가 기준인지 첫날 종가인지와 희석 주식 기준은 공개 요약에 없음" ], "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": true, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_SUMMARY_ONLY", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "openai-douglas-ipo-20260527", "analysisId": "douglas-openai-ipo-20260527", "companyId": "openai", "person": "Douglas Kim", "affiliation": "Douglas Research Insights", "kind": "direct_forecast", "displayValue": "$1T 이상", "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T15:26:37Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "note": "동일 Smartkarma 게재본은 같은 analysisId의 중복본이다. 2027년 목표 보도와 가치 전망 발표일을 구분하며 최신 재확인이나 보수적 최소값으로 해석하지 않는다." }, { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "POSSIBLE_NOT_TARGET", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "AI가 추가 생산성을 얼마나 만들어내는지 검증 필요", "높은 가치를 장기간 유지할 수 있는지는 의문" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-merkel-possibility-20260815", "analysisId": "reuters-merkel-anthropic-20260815", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "David Merkel", "affiliation": "Aleph Investments · Principal", "kind": "possibility_assessment", "displayValue": "$2T 가능성 · 지속성에는 신중", "publishedAt": "2026-08-15T00:11:58Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-17T06:59:56Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_MERKEL_20260815" ], "note": "Reuters의 실명 인터뷰. $2T 도달 가능성을 인정한 발언이며 확정 목표가·하한·매수 추천이 아니다. 기사 내 2028년 매출 전망은 회사·익명 취재원 자료이며 Merkel의 자체 계산으로 귀속하지 않는다." }, { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "REPORTED_VALUE_ASSESSED_NOT_TARGET", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": "2026-09-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "timingPrecision": "WINDOW", "assumptions": [ "시장 예상 시가총액 $2T를 조건으로 검토", "연환산 매출 $65B와 AI 비교기업의 높은 배수", "OpenAI 가격 인하와 미국 자금 공급 여력이 IPO 흥행에 부담" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "DAY", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-kim-minkyu-assessment-20260904", "analysisId": "kb-kim-minkyu-anthropic-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "김민규", "affiliation": "KB증권 · 애널리스트", "kind": "possibility_assessment", "displayValue": "$2T를 고평가로 단정하기 어려움", "publishedAt": "2026-09-04", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_KB_ANTHROPIC_20260904" ], "note": "시장 전망 수치를 놓고 적정성과 흥행 위험을 평가한 독립 해설이다. KB 자체 산출 목표가·공모가 범위로 등록하지 않는다. 조달 규모 $100B는 회사 시가총액과 분리한다." }, { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "2000000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "REPORTED_AT_LEAST", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": "2026-10-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "timingPrecision": "MONTH", "assumptions": [ "FT의 IPO 보도 내용이 실현되는 경우" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-douglas-ft-commentary-20260813", "analysisId": "douglas-anthropic-ft-commentary-20260813", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "Douglas Kim", "affiliation": "Douglas Research Insights", "kind": "quoted_commentary", "displayValue": "FT 보도 $2T 이상을 전제로 한 해설", "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T16:17:16Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_ANTHROPIC_20260813", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "quotedFromSourceRefs": [ "DR_FT_ANTHROPIC_20260812" ], "upstreamAnalysisId": "ft-anthropic-ipo-2t-20260812", "note": "$2T는 저자의 독립 목표가가 아닌 FT 보도 재인용. 본문의 과거 $1.2~1.5T 시장 기대 설명은 현재 범위나 최소값으로 사용하지 않는다." }, { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "REPORTED_VALUE_COMMENTARY", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "빠른 매출 증가가 충분한 이익으로 이어져야 높은 가치가 성립", "저렴한 모델로의 전환과 경쟁이 가치 유지에 영향" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-rathbones-commentary-20260826", "analysisId": "rathbones-anthropic-commentary-20260826", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": "Will Findlay-Wilson", "affiliation": "Rathbones · Equity Analyst", "kind": "quoted_commentary", "displayValue": "보도된 $2T에 대한 기관 해설", "publishedAt": "2026-08-25T20:46:00Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-26T09:41:42Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_RATHBONES_20260826" ], "note": "원문은 뉴스로 알려진 $2T를 논평한다. Rathbones 자체 산출 목표가나 보수 모델이 아니다. 화면 최종 갱신 8/26, 최초 발행 메타 8/25를 분리했다." }, { "valueUsd": "2000000000000", "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "COULD_NOT_TARGET", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "공모 일정과 시장 상황은 변경 가능" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "anthropic-investors-reuters-20260904", "analysisId": "reuters-anthropic-outlook-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "person": null, "affiliation": null, "kind": "anonymous_investor", "displayValue": "일부 익명 투자자의 $2T 가능성", "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905" ], "note": "기사에 등장하는 일부 투자자의 가능성 수치다. 실명 전문가 수와 기관 자체 모델 집계에서 제외한다." }, { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": "100000000000", "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": false, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": "WELL_ABOVE_POSSIBLE", "valuationBasis": "IPO_VALUATION_UNSPECIFIED", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "YEAR_TURN", "assumptions": [ "IPO가 약 6개월 후 성사되는 경우", "공개 요약은 낙관 가능성을 말하며 수치 산식은 미공개" ], "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "SECOND", "independentNumericForecast": true, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_SUMMARY_ONLY", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "moonshot-douglas-ipo-20260723", "analysisId": "douglas-moonshot-ipo-20260723", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "person": "Douglas Kim", "affiliation": "Douglas Research Insights", "kind": "direct_forecast", "displayValue": "$100B 크게 초과 가능", "publishedAt": "2026-07-23T10:03:37Z", "boundarySemantics": "연말/연초는 질적 기간 표현. 원문에 없는 분기·일 경계를 만들지 않고 정량 경계는 null로 보존.", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_MOONSHOT_20260723", "DR_DOUGLAS_ABOUT" ], "note": "$100B는 점추정이 아닌 열린 하한 표현이다. $50B 투자 라운드 목표와 분리하고 한 명의 낙관 전망을 전문가 평균·보수 하단으로 사용하지 않는다." }, { "valueUsd": null, "lowUsd": null, "highUsd": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null, "magnitudeQualifier": null, "valuationBasis": "NO_IPO_VALUATION_FORECAST", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "timingPrecision": "UNKNOWN", "assumptions": [ "오픈 모델 경쟁력과 비용 효율이 기업 수요로 전환되어야 함" ], "validity": "CURRENT", "supersedesId": null, "publishedAtPrecision": "DAY", "independentNumericForecast": false, "evidenceScope": "PUBLIC_ORIGINAL_CONTENT", "exactDay": false, "forecastId": "moonshot-cathay-investor-commentary-20260717", "analysisId": "cathay-moonshot-investment-thesis-20260717", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "person": "Denis Barrier · Shendong Nie (Eric)", "affiliation": "Cathay Innovation", "kind": "quoted_commentary", "displayValue": "수치 없는 투자 논리", "publishedAt": "2026-07-17", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CATHAY_MOONSHOT" ], "note": "공동 저자의 동일 투자 분석 1건이다. Moonshot 투자자인 회사가 공개한 논리이며 신규 IPO 수치 전망은 없다. 숫자 전망·보수 모델 집계에 넣지 않는다." } ], "timingForecasts": [ { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "confidenceKind": "NAMED_ANALYST_FORECAST", "timingId": "openai-douglas-2h26-20260527", "companyId": "openai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2026-07-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-12-31", "datePrecision": "HALF_YEAR", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_OPENAI_20260527" ], "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T15:26:37Z", "displayText": "당시 전망: 2026년 하반기", "boundarySemantics": "하반기의 시작·종료 경계이며 거래일 아님." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "NAMED_COMPANY_STATEMENT_REPORTED", "timingId": "openai-cfo-2027-20260820", "companyId": "openai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2027-01-01", "expectedEnd": "2027-12-31", "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_MK_OPENAI_20260820" ], "publishedAt": "2026-08-20T03:05:19Z", "displayText": "2027년 목표 · CFO 발언 보도", "boundarySemantics": "연도 경계. 1월 1일이나 12월 31일이 예상 거래일이라는 뜻이 아님.", "note": "8/19 현지시간 CFO 사내 발언을 매일경제가 보도. 성장과 시장 여건에 따라 앞당길 수 있음. 이전 다른 저자의 가치 전망을 자동 철회하지 않음." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "INSTITUTION_REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-kb-listing-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2026-09-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "datePrecision": "WINDOW", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_KB_ANTHROPIC_20260904" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04", "displayText": "2026년 9~10월 전망 · KB증권", "boundarySemantics": "9~10월 두 달의 경계. 특정 거래일 아님." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "confidenceKind": "QUOTED_MEDIA_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-douglas-ft-october-20260813", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2026-10-01", "expectedEnd": "2026-10-31", "datePrecision": "MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_ANTHROPIC_20260813" ], "publishedAt": "2026-08-13T16:17:16Z", "displayText": "2026년 10월 전망 · FT 인용 해설", "boundarySemantics": "월 경계이며 정확한 상장일 아님." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-reuters-marketing-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_MARKETING_START", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "PART_OF_MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "displayText": "이르면 2026년 10월 중순 마케팅 시작", "boundarySemantics": "중순은 질적 시기 표현이어서 날짜 경계를 생성하지 않음. at earliest는 종료 상한이 없으며 거래 개시 전망이 아님.", "note": "확정 로드쇼 시작일 아님. 마케팅 준비 단계와 IPO 완료를 별도 보존." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-reuters-prospectus-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "PROSPECTUS_PUBLICATION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "PART_OF_MONTH", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "displayText": "2026년 9월 하순 신고서 공개 전망", "boundarySemantics": "late September의 질적 시기만 보존하고 21일을 생성하지 않음. 상장일 아님." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "anthropic-reuters-listing-20260904", "companyId": "anthropic", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": "2026-11-03", "endExclusive": true, "datePrecision": "WINDOW", "timezone": "America/New_York", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_CNA_ANTHROPIC_20260905", "DR_FEC_ELECTION_2026" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-04T22:42:23Z", "displayText": "11월 중간선거 며칠 전 상장 완료 전망", "boundarySemantics": "11월 3일은 출처가 언급한 중간선거의 달력상 경계이며 예상 IPO일이 아님. endExclusive=true. 며칠 전이라는 정성 표현으로부터 임의 시작일을 생성하지 않음.", "note": "Reuters 원문은 10월 중순 이후 마케팅을 시작하고 11월 중간선거 며칠 전 완료할 전망. 확정 거래일은 없고 계획은 변경 가능." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "DATED_NOT_REAFFIRMED", "confidenceKind": "NAMED_ANALYST_FORECAST", "timingId": "moonshot-douglas-year-turn-20260723", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR_TURN", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "DR_DOUGLAS_MOONSHOT_20260723" ], "publishedAt": "2026-07-23T10:03:37Z", "displayText": "2026년 말~2027년 초 전망", "boundarySemantics": "연말/연초의 질적 기간 표현을 보존. 원문에 없는 Q4/Q1 또는 일 경계는 만들지 않음.", "note": "공개 요약의 약 6개월 후 표현도 함께 확인. 단일 특정 날짜로 변환하지 않음." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": null, "exactDay": false, "validity": "SUPERSEDED", "confidenceKind": "ANONYMOUS_REPORTED_OUTLOOK", "timingId": "moonshot-zdnet-not-before-2027-20260809", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": "2027-01-01", "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-STRUCTURE-20260809" ], "publishedAt": "2026-08-09T03:02:00Z", "displayText": "당시 일부 관계자: 2027년 이후", "boundarySemantics": "not before 2027는 열린 종료 경계. 2027년 안에 완료 보장 아님.", "note": "같은 기사에는 규제 해소 시 더 빨라질 수 있다는 반대 전망도 있다. 9/5 후속 상장 추진 보도로 갱신." }, { "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:52:18.256Z", "forecastOrConfirmed": "forecast", "supersedesId": "moonshot-zdnet-not-before-2027-20260809", "exactDay": false, "validity": "CURRENT", "confidenceKind": "EARLIEST_POSSIBLE_YEAR", "timingId": "moonshot-zdnet-earliest-2026-20260905", "companyId": "moonshot-ai", "eventKind": "IPO_COMPLETION", "expectedStart": null, "expectedEnd": null, "datePrecision": "YEAR", "timezone": "Asia/Hong_Kong", "sourceRefs": [ "CF-MOON-IPO-20260905" ], "publishedAt": "2026-09-05T06:24:00Z", "displayText": "이르면 2026년 IPO 검토 · 후속 보도", "boundarySemantics": "이르면 올해는 최종 완료 범위를 명시하지 않으므로 두 날짜 경계는 null. 2026년이라는 가능한 시기는 displayText와 YEAR 정밀도로 보존.", "note": "비공개 신청 보도와 전망을 분리. 소식에 대해 회사와 주관사는 공식 입장을 내놓지 않음." } ], "predictionMarkets": [], "predictionMarketAttempts": [ { "companyId": "openai", "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-openais-ipo-valuation-be", "marketType": "IPO_OFFER_VALUATION", "checkedAt": "2026-09-08T01:58:43.063Z", 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}, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, "reason": "참고 기준 대비 산술 차이입니다. 계약 단위·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않았습니다.", "contractReason": null, "usdReason": null, "comparisonReason": "참고 기준 대비 산술 차이입니다. 계약 단위·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않았습니다.", "assumptions": [ "환산계수는 계약상 추정 단위 수이며 실제 발행주식 수·주식 소유권을 의미하지 않습니다." ], "basis": "mark", "factorVersion": "bybit-moonshotusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factorDocumentAsOf": "2026-09-08", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:48:15.114Z" }, { "instrumentId": "bybit:OPENAIUSDT", "referenceId": "openai-funding-20260331", "state": "available", "contractValue": "1482430000000", "contractCurrency": "USDT", "contractState": "available", "usdState": "available", "comparisonState": "reference_only", "quality": "current_verified", "valueUsd": "1481940798100", "gapPct": "73.9367133920187793427230046948356807512", "gapLowPct": null, "gapHighPct": null, "rangeKind": "point", "boundsComparison": { "premium": { "point": "73.9367133920187793427230046948356807512", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": "-42.50782480026521108029679799123144202747", "low": null, "high": null, "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": null }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, "reason": "참고 기준 대비 산술 차이입니다. 계약 단위·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않았습니다.", "contractReason": null, "usdReason": null, "comparisonReason": "참고 기준 대비 산술 차이입니다. 계약 단위·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않았습니다.", "assumptions": [ "환산계수는 계약상 추정 단위 수이며 실제 발행주식 수·주식 소유권을 의미하지 않습니다." ], "basis": "mark", "factorVersion": "bybit-openaiusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factorDocumentAsOf": "2026-09-08", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:47:56.880Z" }, { "instrumentId": "bybit:OPENAIUSDT", "referenceId": "openai-ipo-reported-20260625", "state": "available", "contractValue": "1482430000000", "contractCurrency": "USDT", "contractState": "available", "usdState": "available", "comparisonState": "scenario", "quality": "current_verified", "valueUsd": "1481940798100", "gapPct": null, "gapLowPct": "48.19407981", "gapHighPct": null, "rangeKind": "lower_bound", "boundsComparison": { "premium": { "point": null, "low": "48.19407981", "high": null, "lowInclusive": true, "highInclusive": null }, "scenarioChange": { "point": null, "low": null, "high": "-32.52092112707184399095868308829981458623", "lowInclusive": null, "highInclusive": true }, "quality": "reference_only", "limitations": [ "가치 산정 시점·주식 수·지분 종류·증자 전후 기준의 동등성이 확인되지 않은 산술 참고 비교입니다.", "IPO 자금유입·희석·계약 리베이스에 따른 미래 계약가격이나 수익률을 예측한 값이 아닙니다." ] }, "reason": "예상·목표 시나리오 대비 산술 차이이며 확정 IPO 가치나 동등 지분 비교가 아닙니다.", "contractReason": null, "usdReason": null, "comparisonReason": "예상·목표 시나리오 대비 산술 차이이며 확정 IPO 가치나 동등 지분 비교가 아닙니다.", "assumptions": [ "환산계수는 계약상 추정 단위 수이며 실제 발행주식 수·주식 소유권을 의미하지 않습니다." ], "basis": "mark", "factorVersion": "bybit-openaiusdt-current-2026-09-08", "factorDocumentAsOf": "2026-09-08", "factorVerifiedAt": "2026-09-08T01:47:56.880Z" } ] }